Forecasters say a stubborn weather pattern will keep unusual heat locked in the western U.S. through late March while the East shivers through a cold, wet stretch that could last into April
Spring officially arrives on March 20, but the weather across the United States is telling two completely different stories depending on which half of the country you live in. The West is baking under temperatures more typical of May. The East is bracing for a cold, blustery stretch that forecasters say could drag well into April.
The warm air is stuck in the West
The large-scale weather pattern across the country is funneling heat into the western half and keeping it there. AccuWeather meteorologists say this setup is unlikely to change through the end of March, meaning the interior Southwest, Rockies, and High Plains will continue running well above normal temperatures while the eastern two-thirds of the country stays cool and damp.
The pattern through the first week of April is expected to remain consistent. Warm and dry conditions in the West, cool and wet in the East. Occasional warm-ups will pop up east of the Mississippi, but none of them are expected to hold before the next wave of chilly air pushes through.
A cold front is about to make it worse in the East
A strong storm system currently roaring across the Great Lakes is dragging a cold front through the eastern half of the country. Temperatures will briefly spike ahead of the front, but what follows will feel more like February than mid-March. Forecasters expect readings to drop 10 to 20 degrees below historical averages once the front passes.
Wind chills will make it feel even colder, particularly across the Great Lakes and Northeast, where strong northwest winds will cut through the region. The combination of cold and wind also brings a risk of power outages as gusts sweep from the Rockies and Southwest over the weekend before reaching the East Coast by Monday, March 16.
AccuWeather’s long-range team has flagged two specific windows for the coldest conditions. 1) March 17 through 20 and 2) March 22 through 23 are both expected to feel unusually frigid for late March in the East, pushing up energy demand during a stretch when many people have already mentally shifted into spring mode.
The West could smash more than 100 temperature records
While the East hunkers down, the western half of the country is heading into territory that has forecasters paying close attention. AccuWeather says more than 100 record highs could be challenged across the Southwest, Rockies, and High Plains next week.
NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center went further, warning that some locations could reach all-time high temperatures for the entire month of March. Four cities are at the center of that watch. 1) Phoenix, 2) Las Vegas, 3) Sacramento, and 4) San Jose all face the possibility of setting new March records. Parts of the Desert Southwest may also record their earliest 100-degree reading ever.
The early timing of this heat wave is a significant concern. Bodies and infrastructure are not yet adjusted to extreme heat after a winter season, and the prolonged nature of the event increases the risk of heat stress as temperatures peak.
Las Vegas is already feeling it
Las Vegas offers a preview of what is coming. The valley started the week in the mid-80s with clear skies and comfortable mornings. Sunday is expected to dip slightly into the upper 70s as pressure drops, but by midweek, temperatures will jump more than 20 degrees above where they started.
The forecast for the back half of next week in Las Vegas tells the story. Tuesday is projected to hit 91 degrees against a daily record of 91. Wednesday through Friday are all forecast in the mid-to-upper 90s, with existing daily records of 90 degrees likely to fall each day. That puts the city on pace for a historically hot start to astronomical spring.
With spring break drawing large crowds outdoors, forecasters are urging people to stay hydrated, wear sunscreen, and avoid the hottest part of the afternoon. No formal heat alerts have been issued yet, but that could change as the week progresses.
When does the East finally warm up?
Not anytime soon, according to AccuWeather’s long-range outlook. The transition to persistent spring warmth from the northern Rockies through the Northeast is expected to be slow and uneven. Warm spells will arrive, but they will be brief before the next push of cool air replaces them.
For anyone in the eastern half of the country hoping to put away the winter coat, the forecast is not encouraging. The pattern that is trapping warm air in the West and cold air in the East is stubborn, and forecasters see no clear signal of it breaking before April. The first day of spring may land on the calendar next Friday, but for tens of millions of Americans, it will not feel like it for a while.
Story credit: usatoday