is your fuel bill about to explode?

The last time oil cost this much, Russia had just launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Now, with the Middle East at the center of a deepening energy crisis, a barrel of oil is once again rattling government offices, airline boardrooms and grocery stores, and the ripple effects are landing squarely in everyday people’s pockets.

What sent oil soaring past $126?

Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil prices, surged by nearly 7% to hit $126.31 a barrel during Asian trading today, before easing back to around $116 in European markets. The surge was triggered by a report that the U.S. military was preparing to brief President Donald Trump on potential new strike options targeting Iran, deepening fears of an escalating conflict with no clear end in sight.

According to Axios, U.S. Central Command drafted a plan for a wave of swift, high-intensity strikes aimed at breaking the negotiating deadlock with Tehran. A second plan reportedly involves seizing part of the Strait of Hormuz to reopen it for commercial shipping, a move that could require troops on the ground.

The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s energy supply passes, has been effectively shut since Iran threatened to attack vessels in the waterway following U.S.-Israeli airstrikes. The U.S. responded by announcing a blockade of Iranian ports, tightening the stranglehold on global energy flows even further. Oil prices had already climbed 6% the day before following reports that Washington was preparing for an extended blockade.

4 everyday costs now climbing because of the crisis

The pain is spreading well beyond the fuel pump. Here is how the oil price crisis is working its way into daily life:

1. Petrol and diesel: In the U.K., petrol is averaging 157p per litre, up 24p from before the war began, while diesel has climbed to 188.5p per litre, a jump of 46p compared to pre-war levels.
2. Flights: Some airlines have already begun raising fares or cutting routes as jet fuel costs continue to rise.
3. Food: Fertiliser prices are increasing because urea shipments, a critical farming input, are being blocked. Higher farming costs traditionally flow through to supermarket shelves, and analysts warn the pressure could intensify later in the year.
4. Energy bills: The U.K. government has warned that household energy costs could climb further as the conflict prolongs supply chain disruptions.

South Africa braces for a rough road ahead

For South Africans, the timing could hardly be worse. May’s fuel prices are already locked in with steep increases: motorists can expect to pay between R1.72 and R2.04 more per litre for petrol, while diesel could rise by as much as R4 per litre. A temporary tax relief measure from Treasury has softened the blow slightly for May, but the relief is already being wound back.

June threatens to be considerably harder. Treasury has announced that the petrol relief will be halved to R1.50, with diesel relief cut to R1.96, before both measures disappear entirely in July. If oil prices remain elevated, South African drivers could be staring down some of the steepest fuel cost increases in recent memory.

How long can this last?

Markets are watching Washington very carefully. Energy executives met with Trump on Tuesday to discuss ways to limit the blow to American consumers, a clear signal that concern about inflation is growing inside the administration. Analysts have noted that oil near $125 a barrel is the point at which businesses and governments tend to push hard for de-escalation, and speculation about renewed diplomacy is already beginning to surface.

Stock markets in Asia reflected the broader unease, with Japan’s Nikkei closing 1.1% lower and South Korea’s Kospi falling 1.4%. European markets were mixed, with London’s FTSE 100 gaining 1% while France’s CAC dropped 0.6%.

Until the Strait of Hormuz reopens, every driver, traveler and grocery shopper has very good reason to keep watching the price of a barrel.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The author and publication are not registered investment advisors and do not provide personalized investment recommendations.