Financial markets had one of their strongest sessions in months Today, driven by reports that the United States and Iran are nearing a preliminary agreement to end their war. The S&P 500 closed above 7,300 for the first time, the Nasdaq Composite jumped 2.02% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 612 points, or 1.24%. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted new intraday and closing highs.
Oil prices fell sharply as traders priced in the possibility of shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz reopening. Brent crude, the global benchmark, settled 7.83% lower at $101.27 a barrel after briefly dipping below $100, its lowest in two weeks. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped roughly 7% to $95.08 a barrel.
Markets front-run an Iran deal that isn’t final yet
The catalyst was a report from Axios, citing U.S. officials and sources familiar with the negotiations, that the White House believes it is close to a one-page, 14-point memorandum of understanding with Iran. The document would declare an end to the war and open a 30-day period of negotiations on nuclear limits, sanctions relief and Strait of Hormuz access.
Stock markets pulled back from their session highs after President Donald Trump said the deal was not finalized and issued a warning that military strikes would resume at greater intensity if Iran did not agree to terms. An Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson confirmed to media that Tehran was evaluating the U.S. proposal.
Analysts noted that markets moved on the news before any official confirmation arrived. Senior strategists described the session as one in which investors appeared to be positioning ahead of a positive outcome rather than waiting for it to materialize. The U.S. dollar fell 0.3% against major peers as the war’s safe-haven premium partially unwound. The yen rose as much as 1.8% against the dollar, a sharp enough move to prompt speculation about potential intervention.
Iran war context still weighs on the broader picture
Despite Today’s rally, the broader impact of the conflict on global financial conditions remains significant. Oil prices are still roughly 35% higher than they were when fighting began in late February. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 6.4 basis points to 4.352% Today, but remains approximately 40 basis points above pre-war levels. Central banks in the United States, Europe, Canada, Japan, the United Kingdom, Australia and New Zealand have all held rates steady in recent months as energy-driven inflation complicated their decisions.
European markets also moved higher. The STOXX 600 gained 2.2%, extending the prior session’s gains. MSCI’s All-Country World Index climbed 1.64% to a fresh record.
AI rally adds fuel to the markets surge
A separate current running through Today’s session had nothing to do with Iran. Advanced Micro Devices reported second-quarter revenue guidance well above analyst and markets expectations, sending its shares up roughly 18.6% and reigniting enthusiasm across the semiconductor sector. Intel reached a record high, while Arm Holdings and Qualcomm posted significant gains.
The momentum extended to Asia. The broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan jumped 3.2%. Samsung Electronics surged 14%, crossing $1 trillion in market value and overtaking Berkshire Hathaway in the process.
Strong corporate earnings have reinforced the broader rally in recent weeks. Some market analysts argue the gains reflect fundamentals more than speculative excess, pointing to earnings growth as the primary driver of index moves rather than valuation expansion. Stock futures were little changed after Today’s close, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures each slipping about 0.1% and Dow futures down marginally.