NEXT year is a defining time for Donald Trump’s presidency with unprecedented challenges – and opportunities – to face.
There are dangerous mid-term elections, international tensions to navigate, and a monumental national birthday to honour – and his most fervent opponents are desperate to do The Don down at every turn.
Trump stormed back to power in January and has achieved a staggering amount at breakneck speed.
But experts warn cracks are beginning to show.
His popularity is waning, dissent is bubbling from inside his MAGA base, and he is yet to defang the World War Three threat from rival superpowers Russia and China.
So how will Trump approach the coming 12 months?
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How will he use America’s 250th anniversary to reunite MAGA, step up his “war on crime” with troops in more cities, and do whatever it takes to come out on top in the midterms?
Peace mission continues
Trump has relished being “President of Peace“, and will no doubt see 2026 as his time to push ahead with his agenda to smash deadlocks and solve international conflicts with creative dealmaking.
Dr Mark Shanahan, an expert on American politics the University of Surrey, told us: “Superficially, his international interventions are working – although he’s not a pursuer of detail.
“Looking at Gaza, he deserves credit for enabling the beginning of a process, but it is incredibly early days in establishing lasting peace.”
But the thorn in Trump’s side on the international stage is the ongoing bloodshed in Russia’s illegal war in Ukraine.
After promising to end the war “within 24 hours” during his re-election campaign, it is still grinding on – and Trump is determined not to be seen to be rolling over to Putin.
Dr Shanahan said: “He wants to sabre-rattle against Putin. He has this incredibly strange relationship with Putin – who appears to have something over him. It may be that he’s just in thrall to strong leaders.
“But he wants to demonstrate his military virility to Putin, and to show that America is a very strong nation.
“He is not subtle about this, which is why he started talking nuclear.”
Although it’s taken longer than anticipated to bring an end to war in Ukraine, Trump’s approach shows a real willingness to solve problems, experts point out.
Alan Mendoza of the Henry Jackson Society says: “What you can see from his negotiations with Russia is that he sees it as a problem to be solved – and is set on doing that.
“He’s also willing to listen to both sides.”
Trump in October said he had told his military to resume testing nukes – an order that was very clearly a response to Russia’s testing programme, which has been flying very close to the wind of nuclear weapons.
Mendoza adds: “This year it’s certainly possible that we see the first nuclear weapons tests get underway; he said it so it could happen.
“Trump needs to show he is not going to ignore new weapons developments but Russia, and Putin has been testing nuclear-capable weapons pretty freely.
“This isn’t an act of aggression from Trump, it’s a necessary reaction.”
China: keep your enemies close
Despite Putin’s obvious warmongering, China poses the greatest long-term threat to America’s superiority – and is therefore Trump’s main opponent on the world stage.
A fierce tariff war between the two this year has emphasised that neither is willing to yield without a struggle.
Dr Shanahan says: “Trump hates the fact that China is becoming increasingly powerful economically, and that this might indeed be the Chinese century.
“He admires Xi as a strong leader and doesn’t want to make an enemy out of China – or Russia, Turkey, Hungary or North Korea for that matter.
“But he doesn’t like what they’re doing at all, particularly as it relates to America and his America First policy.”
This assessment rings true; Trump has been going toe-to-toe with China while being careful not to fall out irreparably with Xi.
Trump in November announced he had accepted an invitation to a state visit in Beijing in April 2026, writing: “Our relationship with China is extremely strong!”
The pair did meet in South Korea in October, which helped to cool economic tensions, but no definitive deal was inked.
Mendoza says: “Trump will not settle for anything other than America being top dog – but there’s nothing to be gained from direct conflict.
“At the same time, China is the only nation clearly gearing up to a position where it could challenge the US militarily – so Trump will want to maintain a firm position as well.”
But there is one flashpoint that threatens to derail the diplomacy.
During a phone call last month, Xi told Trump that uniting Taiwan with China was “an integral part of the post-war international order” – but America staunchly opposes the threat of military action.
Mendoza says: “America has a history of strategic ambiguity on Taiwan – it refuses to reveal whether it would actually intervene in the case of a Chinese invasion.
“Trump is not about to depart from that, so if Xi includes commitments over Taiwan as a condition of any deal then Trump will send him packing.”
Trump world order
Trump has made a point of spinning many plates throughout his first year back in office – and he shows no sign of dropping any in 2026.
While dealing with Putin with one arm, he’s had another fist up to Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro and his “narco-terrorist” associates.
Mendoza says: “Trump is being tough with Maduro, no doubt, and many are speculating that his true goal is regime change – whatever they say about busting the drugs gangs.
“But his goals could be wider even than that – it could be that he is trying to stabilise the wider Central America region.”
Maduro has a mutual understanding with Cuba’s dictatorship – which helped push him into power in 2013 and helps to keep him there.
The Communist island government sends valuable doctors and military advisers into Venezuela’s crumbling society.
Many have speculated that by taking the fight to Venezuela, Trump is really squaring up to the Cuban dictatorship, and attempting to root out the key source of instability.
The Middle East is another region where Trump hopes to reinforce with structures for long-lasting stability.
On the back of his success with the Gaza plan, he now wants to ensure the region is “functional”.
Mendoza says: “Trump sees that America and Israel should form an economic powerhouse in the Middle East, and he wants the region to be functional to reap the rewards from that.
“In 2026, he will look to build on the Abraham Accords of his first term – which he counted as a major success – and normalise relations between the countries over there further.”
A MAGA birthday bash
Next year’s Fourth of July will see America celebrate 250 years of independence from Great Britain – and Trump plans to mark the occasion in style.
Festivities will run all year – but reach a crescendo on Independence Day.
In June, a blockbuster UFC event will be hosted on the White House‘s South Lawn after the fighters are weighed in at the Lincoln Memorial.
There could be up to nine title fights on the card, which will play out on the President’s birthday of June 14.
Analyst Allan Lichtman, famous for his political predictions, says: “Trump loves pageantry, he loves adulation, he tries to use every opportunity to celebrate himself.”
“No question he is going to use the 250th anniversary in order to spark his kind of patriotism.
“He’ll use it for his vision of making America great, and try to carry that momentum into the midterms.”
Trump will attempt to use the anniversary to unify his own MAGA support base – which for the first time has shown signs of splintering in the face of issues such as the Epstein files.
Marjorie Taylor-Greene – once a staunch Trump ally – sensationally quit Congress last month after a bitter spat over the files.
Republican Rep Greene declared she “won’t be a battered wife” – only for Trump to respond the move is “great news for the country”.
Send in the troops
Making good on his election promises to crack down on crime and illegal immigration, Trump has sent national guard troops into several major American cities since returning to power including DC and Los Angeles.
He is determined to stamp out dangerous people entering the States – such as the Afghan terrorist who shot two National Guard soldiers, killing one of them.
Despite squeals from his opponents, he looks set to crank up his no-nonsense approach and do battle with America’s miscreants.
Lichtman says: “I think he’s going to go into as many cities as he can. He thinks this is a winning issue.
“He looks at it as the war on crime, and it is an example of how he is flexing his power as Commander-in-Chief, basically saying: ‘The military is mine, I can deploy them any way I want.’”
Trump has increasingly turned to the military for help – against crime and immigrants in American cities, and against “narco-terrorists” at sea – and Lichtman expects more of the same in 2026.
He said: “We could see a softening of American law for the use of the military but executive authority.”
The professor even says there is “at least a possibility” that Trump will declare Martial Law or invoke the Insurrection Act.
Turn around the mid-terms
Americans will go to the polls in November 2026 for midterm elections which many are predicting will see the Republicans lose control of the House of Representatives.
Trump faces a major challenge to both his all-powerful image and his iron grip on the law-making function of his office if he fails to turn around his party’s prospects.
Lichtman says: “The midterms are not looking all that good for the Republicans.
“The generic polls shows Democrats ahead, and Republicans are going to have a very tough time.”
It’s usual for a President’s party to dip in the polls after coming to power, and the midterms normally see them lose much ground in Congress.
But Lichtman, like others, thinks Trump is prepared to go to great lengths to buck this trend.
He says: “There is at least some chance that he might use executive powers and his role as Commander-in-Chief to utilize the military to influence the midterms.
“He might call a national emergency. He might say we need to station the military at polling places in order to stop illegal immigrants from voting.”
Should Trump ride out the threat at the polls, he will stand in a strong position to face down the wider challenges both within the US and around the world – and lead America in a birthday party to remember.