WE are a mere few days away from the Christmas racing bonanza, where some of the most talented horses in training will square off at Leopardstown and Kempton.
But before we look ahead to what will be a Festival of horse racing to remember, we get a pre-Christmas treat from Ascot’s Long Walk Hurdle meeting.
The main event will go to post at 2:25 Saturday, but before that, we have a six-race card to preview, where the Grade 2 Howden Noel Novices’ Chase takes centre stage.
🏇 Ascot Long Walk Hurdle Meeting day one
Odds provided by top horse racing betting sites are correct at the time of writing, and are subject to change.
12:40 Howden Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle – 2m5½f
The conditional jockeys get us underway for the Long Walk Hurdle meeting, and it’s a race where few can be ruled out.
Goodwin, Mount Anglesby, and El Galactico all come here on the back of wins, but the former is the most interesting of the three going forward. He made it two from three over hurdles when winning well last time out at Plumpton.
On the back of that win, El Galactico has gone from a mark of 113 to 121, marking his clear progression. With more improvement on the cards, he looks well-equipped to go close. However, it may be worth siding with the top-weight SAMUEL SPADE.
Trainer Ben Pauling has been operating at a 30% strike rate over the past two weeks, and his six-year-old son of Myboycharlie looks set for a big run back on the course, which was the scene of his last win.
He’s back down to a mark of 127, which is only two pounds higher than when winning here in February, which came over two furlongs further.
The drop back in distance will hold no issues for the Pauling-trained six-year-old, and with Callum Prichard taking a valuable three pounds off his back, I am expecting Samuel Spade to leave his two below-par runs this season well behind him.
- Selection: Samuel Spade (each way)
- Danger: El Galactico
➡️ Bet on SAMUEL SPADE for the Howden Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle here with bet365
1:15 Howden Maiden Hurdle – 2m5½f
Off The Jury, who was bought for £250,000 by current connections at the David Maxwell dispersal sale, looked a less than straightforward ride when making his debut over course and distance for Mickey Bowen.
Richard Patrick was on board that day, and his partner was considerably weak in the market (7/4 out to 11/4 SP). Now with that run under his belt, it’s easy to see a considerable jump forward from Off The Jury today, especially with James Bowen taking over in the saddle.
Ben Pauling’s Big Deep was backed like defeat was out of the question on his latest start, but he yet again found one too good, so he has to be approached with caution.
Gaelic Pride’s form from his second at Cheltenham’s November meeting has been franked with the fourth, Ambiente Friendly, going on to score on his next start, and the winner, Soldier Reeves, ran well to finish second to Supreme Novices’ Hurdle hopeful Hurricane Pat at Sandown. Even though Gaelic Pride looks like a solid option, he may have to settle for minor honours behind BIG TICKET.
The Nigel and Willy Twiston-Davies four-year-old was last seen finishing second over course and distance, Off The Jury over two lengths behind in third, but it’s easy to see him upholding that form.
The form of his second to Marsiac has been well-advertised, with the winner going on to win again at Hereford next time (the second that day has also gone on to win), as well as the third-place Tiddesly Wood winning as well. He still seems to be learning on the job, and with a bit more professionalism, Big Ticket will prove hard to pass.
Of the others, the point-to-point winner Crystal Island should be noted if supported in the betting, as well as Charlie Longsdon’s Seamoon Story.
- Selection: Big Ticket
- Danger: Gaelic Pride
➡️ Bet on BIG TICKET for the Howden Maiden Hurdle here with BetMGM
1:50 Howden Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase – 2m1f
There may be only five runners, but this is one of the more interesting races on today’s card.
Bluey (entered to run at Exeter on Thursday), who won on chase debut at Kempton, couldn’t back up that win at Newbury. Even though she wasn’t beaten that far, she didn’t look straightforward on the day. However, the positive to come out of the race is that the 50/1 second Might Bandit went one place better when winning at Newbury on Wednesday.
Ben Pauling’s Vanderpoel has been well beaten in his two chase starts to date, but he was clear of the third-place finisher at Lingfield. It is only a matter of time before things click for this two-time hurdle winner, but for now, he has to be taken on.
French raider Stencil always seems to attract a lot of support, but he has to win outside of France. He was well beaten behind July Flower and co in the Arkle trial at Cheltenham in November, and he will need to settle better in this small field to be a serious threat.
That brings me to the selection, EXCELERO. He was last seen dominating a three-runner field at Warwick on his second chase start, and he is the one to be with here.
He has been put up seven pounds for that win, but Jane Williams’ string has been in fine form over the past few weeks. Her winning trend continued with Knight Of Allen, who is in the same ownership as Excelero, winning at Newbury on Wednesday.
Ascot is a track that rewards good front-running jumpers, and in a field where Excelero is likely to get his own way out in front, this progressive five-year-old can give his rivals the slip as heads turn for home.
- Selection: Excelero 9/4
- Danger: Bluey 11/4
➡️ Bet on EXCELERO for the Howden Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase here with Betway
2:25 Ascot Shop Handicap Hurdle – 2m
One of the most competitive races on the card, but even so, this may revolve around how ready Let It Rain will be on her return from 387 days off the track.
When last seen, Let It Rain was winning a mares’ novice hurdle in comfortable fashion at Wetherby. But it transpired that she suffered a serious cut during the race, which cut her season short.
She has been given an opening mark of 120, which could prove very lenient, given the high regard the Skelton team holds her in. However, given the fact that 120 might be a very lenient mark, the Skeltons may be out to use this as a prep for some bigger targets down the line.
If this race was worth a lot more than just over £8,000 to the winner, then you could make a strong claim that Let It Rain would be firing on all cylinders for her comeback.
With that said, the value lies with HE’S A LATCHICO who arrives on the back of a clear career-best performance at Leicester. Having travelled powerfully throughout the race, he looked the winner a long way from home. For that win, He’s A Latchico has been raised six pounds, which seems more than fair.
This is a race that should be run to suit, and should he kick on from that win, then there is every chance that He’s A Latchico can go close to making it back-to-back wins.
Tashan, Parramount, and Walkandina are ones to be watched closely as well.
- Selection: He’s A Latchico (each way)
- Danger: Let It Rain
➡️ Bet on HE’S A LATCHICO for the Ascot Shop Handicap Hurdle here with SBK
3:00 Grade 2 Howden Noel Novices’ Chase – 2m3f
Only five line up for this Grade 2 contest, but the top three in the market are the ones to concentrate on.
Sam Thomas had Steel Ally well prepared for his chase debut when winning with something in hand over Unexpected Party at Carlisle last month, but this will be a much sterner test than what he faced at the northern track.
No Questions Asked is a course and distance winner, and ran another fine race at Newbury when only finding Wendigo too good for him on the day. He will have this run to suit his hold-up style, but JAX JUNIOR put in a dominant display when turning over Jeriko Du Reponet at Kempton.
The form of that race has been given a boost since with the fourth, Hansard, going on to win by eight lengths on his next start, whereas Jeriko Du Reponet followed home the talented Regent’s Stroll at Wincanton on Tuesday.
The Lucy Wadham six-year-old steps up another furlong in distance, which can spark even more improvement from this progressive chaser. With a similar set-up to his Kempton win, he may be gone beyond recall before his rivals realise what has happened.
- Selection: Jax Junior 3/1
- Danger: No Questions Asked 7/4
➡️ Bet on JAX JUNIOR for the Grade 2 Howden Noel Novices’ Chase here with bet365
3:35 Listed King Edward VII Ascot Membership Open National Hunt Flat Race – 2m
This is one of the more informative bumpers of the season, with a list of winners who have gone on to bigger and better things in the future. Last season, we saw Windbeneathmywings win impressively in the manner of a high-class gelding, but unfortunately, we haven’t seen him since that win.
This season’s lineup is stacked with potential and an open betting market.
Bass Hunter is the current favourite on the back of a win at Newbury, where the eight-length second has since gone on to frank the form. He had three runs in point-to-points prior to that win, so he may not be open to as much improvement as some of his rivals here.
Sea The Day, Black Eddy, The Walk, Barrow Hill Lad, and No Way Jay all arrive on the back of debut wins. But the one that is appealing at an each-way price is SINCHI ROCA.
The Syd Hosie-trained five-year-old made a promising debut for new connections when finding the Thomas Cooper-trained Saint Clovis too good in a Listed bumper at Cheltenham’s November meeting. That form looks the best on show, and with Sinchi Roca more than entitled to come on for that run, he looks a very solid each-way bet in what is a wide-open contest.
- Selection: Sinchi Roca 11/2 (each way)
- Danger: Black Eddy 7/1
➡️ Bet on SINCHI ROCA for the Listed King Edward VII Ascot Membership Open National Hunt Flat Race here with BetMGM
About the author
Craig Mahood
Craig Mahood is an expert in sports betting and online casinos and has worked with the company since 2020. He joined the Betting & Gaming team at The Sun in June 2022 and works closely with the leading bookmakers and online gaming companies to provide content on all areas of sports betting and gaming. He previously worked as a Digital Sports Reporter at the Scottish Sun, covering Scottish football with particular focus on Celtic and Rangers, As well as football, he has covered horse racing, boxing, darts, the Olympics and tennis for the Sun.
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