Consumers are expected to outspend Black Friday and Cyber Monday combined this week
The biggest shopping event of the summer is officially here, and the numbers behind it are staggering.
Amazon’s 12th annual Prime Day kicks off June 23 and runs through June 26, and industry forecasts are pointing to a record-breaking four days for online retail. Adobe Analytics projects that consumers will spend $26.3 billion across Amazon and competing retailers during the event — a 9% jump from last year’s figure of $24.2 billion. That total would surpass the combined online spending from Black Friday and Cyber Monday in 2025, which together generated roughly $26 billion.
The forecast arrives as shoppers are increasingly price-conscious. Higher gas prices and persistent inflation have pushed more consumers toward deal-seeking behavior, and Prime Day has become one of the clearest windows into where spending appetite actually stands.
Amazon dominates but rivals are closing in
Amazon is expected to capture roughly 60% of all online retail spending generated during the four-day event — its largest projected share since 2019, based on eMarketer estimates. But the competitive landscape has shifted considerably. Research from digital marketing agency Tinuiti found that nearly 60% of consumers planning to shop Prime Day also intend to browse Walmart’s parallel promotions, while 35% plan to check Target’s offerings.
Both Walmart and Target are running overlapping discount campaigns timed specifically to Amazon Prime Day. Target’s Circle Deal Days runs June 23 through 26, mirroring Amazon’s window almost exactly. Retailers have learned that the event lifts consumer spending broadly, and the smart ones show up for it regardless of whether their name is on the marquee.
Mobile and buy now, pay later surge
Two trends are defining how consumers are actually spending this Prime Day. Mobile shopping is projected to hit an all-time high, accounting for 54.2% of total online sales during the event — translating to roughly $14.2 billion transacted on phones and tablets alone.
Buy now, pay later services are also gaining ground. Adobe expects those payment options to drive $2.04 billion in spending during the four-day window, up 5.5% from last year. The figure represents about 7.8% of total projected e-commerce spending, a sign that consumers are leaning on flexible payment tools even during promotional periods when prices are already discounted.
What shoppers are actually buying
The categories expected to see the heaviest traffic reflect the moment consumers are living in. Back-to-school clothes, household essentials, and everyday goods are leading demand projections, driven by shoppers who have been holding off on purchases and treating Prime Day as a practical reset rather than an impulse-buying occasion.
Research consistently shows that Prime Day shoppers are more strategic than they get credit for. Most compare prices across multiple retailers before committing, and a significant portion reserve bigger-ticket purchases for Black Friday while using Prime Day for items they need now.
Social media is also playing a larger role in driving traffic to deals this year. Adobe projects social commerce will grow 15% year over year during the event, making it the fastest-growing traffic channel — even as paid search remains the largest overall revenue driver at 29.1% of total share.
Prime Day’s expanding footprint
This marks the second consecutive year that Prime Day has taken place in June rather than its traditional July slot, and analysts believe the calendar shift is a meaningful one. Moving the event earlier gives Amazon a head start on back-to-school spending and positions Prime Day directly alongside the FIFA World Cup, which runs through July 19 and has millions of households upgrading their at-home setups ahead of major matches.
For Amazon, Prime Day has always been as much about subscriber growth as raw sales volume. Converting deal-seekers into long-term Prime members remains a core objective, and a record-setting event strengthens that pitch heading into the second half of the year.