Wind, fog and ruthless greens are pushing the field to its limit and the cut line is not being kind
Shinnecock Hills does not care who you are. The Southampton, New York course has been a defining venue in American golf for generations, and the 2026 U.S. Open is quickly becoming another reminder of why it demands respect from every player who walks its fairways regardless of ranking or reputation.
A two-hour fog delay disrupted Thursday’s first round before wind moved in and began reshaping the leaderboard in ways that left some of the game’s biggest names scrambling. As Round 2 got underway Friday, the projected cut line sat at plus 2, with the top 60 players and ties advancing to the weekend. Based on the current field scores, that number is expected to rise before the day ends.
Where the cut line stands
The predictive model at DataGolf placed plus 4 as the most likely outcome for the final cut line, carrying roughly a 45% probability. A cut at plus 5 followed at around 35%, while the chance of it landing at plus 3 sat closer to 10%. Those numbers shifted throughout the morning as players made their way through a course that was playing differently from hole to hole depending on wind direction.
The cut line at last year’s U.S. Open at Oakmont came in at plus 7. When Shinnecock last hosted the tournament in 2018, the cut fell at plus 8. The current projections suggest 2026 will be a considerably tougher week than either of those editions.
The names fighting to survive
Defending champion J.J. Spaun entered Friday at plus 7 after a difficult opening round, leaving him with significant ground to make up before the cut. Si Woo Kim and Daniel Berger sit at the same score, while Joaquin Niemann is at plus 6. Jordan Spieth, Brooks Koepka, and Adam Scott are each at plus 3 and technically on the right side of the projected line for now, though that margin offers little comfort on a course this unforgiving.
Patrick Cantlay, Shane Lowry, and Aaron Rai, who won the PGA Championship earlier this season, are among those at plus 4 and watching the cut number with growing concern. Viktor Hovland sits at plus 5 with holes still to play.
Scottie Scheffler, the world’s top-ranked player, also had a rough start and is working to claw his way back into the conversation before the weekend.
Who is leading the field
While the back half of the leaderboard is fighting for survival, Wyndham Clark has been playing a different tournament entirely. Clark reached minus 6 through 16 holes in his second round Friday morning, building on a strong opening round and opening up a substantial lead over the field.
Sam Stevens, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Jon Rahm, Dustin Johnson, and Gary Woodland are among a group tied at minus 2, each trying to stay within range of Clark as the round develops. Amateur Ryder Cowan also sits at minus 2 after completing his first round, one of the more surprising early stories of the week.
What Friday’s conditions mean
Course conditions on Friday are expected to be less dramatic than the shifting winds that defined Thursday afternoon, but that does not mean the setup will be easier. A more stable wind typically allows the greens to firm up and the course to play harder, which could disadvantage players who tee off later in the day. The players who went out early Friday had a window, and how they used it may determine who makes the cut and who books a flight home.
Shinnecock Hills has always had a way of separating the field in ways that pure skill alone cannot predict. Through 36 holes of the 2026 U.S. Open, that reputation remains very much intact.