From the Lakers and Nuggets fighting for the West’s third seed to four Eastern Conference teams.
The 2025-26 NBA regular season ends Today with a 15-game slate, and while most of the bracket is locked, enough remains unresolved to make the final day worth following closely. In the East, not a single first-round matchup is confirmed entering Sunday. In the West, the battle for the third seed between the Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Lakers is still alive, and the play-in seeding between Portland and the Clippers remains unsettled. Draft lottery positioning is also on the line for several teams near the bottom of the standings.
Eastern Conference of NBA
The Detroit Pistons, Boston Celtics, New York Knicks and Cleveland Cavaliers have locked up seeds one through four respectively, but none of them know their first-round opponent yet. That question depends entirely on what happens below them.
The Atlanta Hawks have clinched a playoff spot and could finish fifth or sixth. They clinch the fifth seed with a win over Miami or a Toronto loss to Brooklyn. The Toronto Raptors can also finish fifth, but only with a win over Brooklyn combined with Atlanta and Orlando both losing. A Raptors win guarantees them at minimum a top-six seed. The Orlando Magic and Philadelphia 76ers are both still fighting for a guaranteed playoff berth and trying to avoid the play-in. Orlando clinches at least seventh with a win over Boston or a Sixers loss to Milwaukee. Philadelphia needs a win and help from other results to secure sixth or seventh. Joel Embiid remains out after emergency surgery for appendicitis.
The Charlotte Hornets and Miami Heat are locked into the 9-10 play-in game and are fighting only for home court in that matchup. Charlotte hosts with a win over the Knicks or a Heat loss to Atlanta.
Western Conference of NBA
Oklahoma City and San Antonio have long since locked up the top two seeds. Houston is fifth and Minnesota is sixth, both confirmed. The meaningful drama in the West runs through seeds three and four.
Denver enters Sunday having won 11 straight games and clinches third with a win over San Antonio or a Lakers loss to Utah. The Lakers, who have limped into the postseason with Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves both dealing with Grade 2 strains that could sideline them for the first round, clinch third only if they beat Utah and the Nuggets lose. Otherwise they fall to fourth and face Houston.
In the play-in bracket, Portland needs a win over Sacramento or a Clippers loss to Golden State to secure eighth and two chances at a playoff spot. The Clippers, who recovered from a 6-21 start to reach the play-in, need a win and a Portland loss to take eighth. Phoenix is locked into seventh and Golden State into tenth.
Lottery stakes
Washington, Indiana and Brooklyn have the three worst records in the league and are assured of the top three lottery spots. The more interesting question involves the teams just below them.
Utah and Sacramento are tied at 22-59 entering Sunday, meaning a coin flip could determine their draft order if the tie holds. Dallas and Memphis are similarly tied at 25-56. The coin flip question matters more than it may appear. Last year, a coin flip between Dallas and Chicago to break a tie at the bottom of the standings was the deciding factor in the Mavericks landing the first overall pick and selecting Cooper Flagg. For Utah specifically, if their pick falls outside the top eight, it conveys to Oklahoma City.
What scouts and executives are watching
With injuries reshaping the Lakers’ first-round NBA prospects, league insiders are watching closely to see whether a 41-year-old LeBron James can carry a depleted roster against Houston. Sources indicated the Lakers would need James to shoot well from three and for the Rockets to have a cold series, conditions that are possible but far from reliable given the talent gap when Doncic and Reaves are unavailable.
In the East, Boston’s young supporting cast is expected to face its first real test in the second round, when its depth and developmental gains will be measured against more seasoned playoff competition. Cleveland’s defensive regression since the NBA All-Star break has drawn attention, with the Cavaliers allowing 42% shooting on corner threes since February, a number that puts them alongside several tanking teams in that category.
San Antonio’s post NBA All-Star shooting surge has turned heads after the Spurs ranked outside the top 20 in three-point makes early in the season. Since the break they have climbed to third in three-point percentage. Whether that holds in the playoffs, against teams specifically prepared to contest it, is the central question surrounding the second seed’s title chances.