Michael Saylor’s Strategy is navigating treacherous waters as its stock price plummets alongside Bitcoin’s recent correction. The company, which serves as the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, has seen its shares crash to levels that have sparked intense debate about the sustainability of its treasury-driven business model. Yet despite the turbulence, analysis suggests the path to a coveted S&P 500 listing remains open.
Research firm Matrixport recently shared findings indicating that Strategy’s potential inclusion in the S&P 500 index by December is still very much a possibility. This assessment comes even as the company faces mounting skepticism from market observers who question whether its aggressive Bitcoin accumulation strategy can withstand prolonged cryptocurrency market downturns.
The troubling mNAV situation
Strategy‘s current predicament centers on a critical metric that has fallen below a psychological threshold. The company’s mNAV, which compares its market capitalization to the total value of its Bitcoin holdings, has dropped below 1. This means the stock’s total market value now sits beneath the worth of the Bitcoin the company actually owns, a development that typically signals investor pessimism about management’s ability to create value beyond simply holding cryptocurrency.
The stock’s descent has been dramatic. MSTR shares fell from a 2025 high of approximately $455 to below $200, erasing all year-to-date gains and leaving the stock down more than 37% for the year. This collapse occurred in tandem with Bitcoin’s broader market correction, which veteran trader Peter Brandt warned could potentially push the cryptocurrency below $50,000. Such a move would place Strategy’s entire Bitcoin portfolio underwater, meaning the value of its holdings would fall below what the company paid to acquire them.
S&P 500 hopes persist
Despite these challenges, the possibility of joining the prestigious S&P 500 index has not disappeared entirely. The company had previously missed out on a September listing opportunity, losing potential spots to Robinhood, AppLovin and Emcor. However, circumstances may have improved for a December consideration.
Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart previously confirmed that Strategy appeared eligible for S&P 500 inclusion following revelations that the company recorded positive earnings for two consecutive quarters, largely attributable to its Bitcoin holdings. The index requires consistent profitability among other criteria. Seyffart cautioned that the probability of actual inclusion remains below 50%, but the possibility itself represents a significant milestone for a company built around cryptocurrency accumulation.
Liquidation fears dismissed
One of the most persistent concerns surrounding Strategy involves whether the company might be forced to sell its Bitcoin holdings to service debt obligations if cryptocurrency prices remain depressed. Matrixport addressed these worries directly, stating that forced liquidation does not appear to be a near-term risk for the company.
Rumors had circulated suggesting Strategy was already selling Bitcoin, which Saylor firmly denied. The company instead demonstrated its commitment to the strategy by completing an $836 million Bitcoin purchase just last week, even as shares continued their downward trajectory.
Investors feeling the pressure
According to Matrixport’s analysis, the real pain is being felt by investors who purchased MSTR stock when it was trading at inflated valuations relative to the company’s net asset value. Strategy raised substantial capital when shares were trading near their all-time high of $474 and the NAV premium was at its peak. Those investors are now experiencing severe NAV compression as the gap between the stock price and underlying Bitcoin value narrows.
This dynamic creates a challenging situation where early investors who believed in the premium valuation are watching their positions deteriorate while the underlying Bitcoin holdings retain most of their value. The compression represents a repricing of how much extra value the market assigns to Strategy’s management of Bitcoin versus simply owning the cryptocurrency directly.
Saylor’s confidence remains unshaken
The company’s founder has maintained his conviction in the business model despite the market turmoil. Saylor characterized Strategy’s approach as indestructible, asserting that the company’s structure allows it to withstand declines of 80% to 90% and continue operating without disruption. He emphasized that the organization was specifically designed to survive extreme drawdowns without interrupting its core operations or Bitcoin accumulation strategy.
Source: CoinGape staff
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and not financial advice. Always research before making investment decisions.