One analyst says the AI disruption fear is overblown. The numbers make the case worth hearing
Salesforce has had one of the roughest stretches in its publicly traded history. The stock is down 41% this year, sits 58% below its late 2024 all-time high and just closed out a 12-day consecutive losing streak that wiped roughly $47 billion from its market capitalization.
Against that backdrop, one firm moved today against the crowd.
What the upgrade actually says
Monness, Crespi, Hardt raised Salesforce to Buy from Neutral, with analyst Brian White setting a 12-month price target of $200. At current trading levels, that represents a steep premium. White’s reasoning centers on valuation. After two years of steep declines, he argues the stock has fallen to a level that no longer reflects the company’s actual financial condition, its margin profile, cash generation or buyback activity.
The core of his argument pushes back on the dominant bearish thesis. He maintains that fears about generative AI leading to the collapse of Salesforce’s business are overblown. Smaller software vendors without the scale, cash reserves or global infrastructure to adapt are, in his view, the companies most exposed to AI disruption. Salesforce, with its market position and product investment, is better placed to benefit from the transition than be buried by it.
Where Salesforce is actually growing
The upgrade did not come without product-level support. Salesforce’s Agentforce platform and Data 360 suite together grew organic annual recurring revenue by more than 100% year over year in the most recent fiscal quarter, reaching $2.3 billion combined. Agentforce alone posted 205% year-over-year ARR growth to $1.2 billion.
The company also launched Slackbot in January 2026, which management has described as the fastest-growing feature in the company’s history. A second product, Headless 360, followed in April. White pointed to both as evidence that Salesforce is actively navigating the AI era rather than being sidelined by it.
Salesforce’s financials in context
The selloff has not been driven by fundamental deterioration. Full fiscal year 2026 revenue came in at $41.5 billion, up from $37.9 billion in fiscal 2025. Operating income climbed from $7.7 billion to $8.9 billion over the same period. Net income rose from $6.2 billion to $7.5 billion.
The most recent fiscal quarter produced $11.1 billion in revenue, $2.4 billion in operating income and $2.1 billion in net income. For a company priced the way Salesforce currently is, those are not the numbers of a business in structural decline.
What the losing streak actually reflects
The 12-day decline of roughly 26% places Salesforce among the worst performers in the S&P 500 over that stretch. The broader index fell just 2.4% across the same window. Year to date, Salesforce is down 41.2% while the S&P 500 is up 8.4%.
That spread reflects one specific concern. AI-native tools are giving enterprise buyers new options, and some investors believe that over time, those options reduce dependence on legacy CRM platforms like Salesforce’s core product.
White’s counter is that this view treats Salesforce as a company standing still. Agentforce growth of 205% year over year and a product launch described as the fastest in company history suggest otherwise.
Whether the market accepts that argument in the second half of 2026 is still an open question. The stock, right now, is priced as if the bearish case has already been settled.