US and Iran step back and leave the biggest questions for later

The United States and Iran reached an agreement Today to end nearly four months of war, with Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announcing the breakthrough on social media and President Trump confirming it shortly after. The formal signing ceremony is scheduled for Friday, June 19, in Switzerland.

Trump announced the immediate lifting of the U.S. naval blockade on Iranian ports and authorized the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, the critical shipping route that has been effectively closed since the conflict began in late February. Iran’s deputy foreign minister told Iranian media that the end of the blockade would begin Tonight.

Pakistan and Qatar served as key mediators throughout the negotiations. The agreement follows 107 days of war and comes as a relief to financial markets and governments concerned about the economic damage the conflict has caused.

The agreement is structured as a memorandum of understanding that extends the existing ceasefire by 60 days. During that window, the two sides have committed to beginning detailed negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program, the disposal of its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, and the conditions under which U.S. sanctions on Iran might be lifted and frozen Iranian funds released.

The text does not resolve those issues. It creates a framework for negotiating them. American officials have described the arrangement as performance-based, meaning sanctions relief will be tied to Iran’s compliance with whatever nuclear commitments emerge from the next phase of talks. Critics in both the United States and Israel have warned that the harder questions may never reach resolution and that the war could effectively end with Iran’s nuclear program left largely intact.

Reopening the Strait of Hormuz in practice will also take time. Mine-clearing operations, infrastructure repairs, and security arrangements must be completed before shipping volumes return to anything close to pre-war levels. Before the conflict, the strait handled approximately 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas traffic.

The agreement came closer to collapsing than the final announcement suggested. Israel struck Hezbollah targets in Beirut’s southern suburbs this morning, killing three people and injuring 16, according to Lebanese health authorities. The strike drew immediate condemnation from Trump, who was publicly furious that it occurred hours before the expected signing. Israeli officials acknowledged they had given the U.S. military only a few minutes of advance notice and that the strike was carried out without coordination with Washington.

Iran’s lead negotiator suggested the attack undermined American credibility and questioned whether the U.S. could control its ally. Iran made operational preparations for a retaliatory strike on Israel, according to American and Israeli officials. U.S. negotiators, supported by Qatari and Pakistani mediators, worked through the afternoon to prevent Iran from following through on those preparations, which would have likely triggered an Israeli counter-response and destroyed the deal entirely.

Iran ultimately held back. Iranian officials later said the military’s readiness to respond had actually strengthened their negotiating position and helped resolve several points that had remained unresolved in the text. Negotiations over the final language continued until approximately 5 p.m. ET, with Sharif’s announcement following fifteen minutes later.

The deal leaves significant questions open. Iran’s nuclear program is the most consequential. The fate of its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, much of which is believed to be buried under rubble from American and Israeli airstrikes, remains unclear. The agreement calls for negotiations over how to downblend that material and monitor Iran’s program going forward but sets no specific commitments on either side.

Lebanon presents a separate problem. Iran has insisted that any broader settlement include an end to Israeli military operations there and a withdrawal of Israeli forces. Israel, which was not part of the negotiations, has said it will continue attacking Hezbollah as long as the group fires into Israeli territory. More than 3,700 Lebanese and at least 30 Israelis have been killed in that conflict over the past several months.

In Israel, the reaction to the deal has been sharply negative across the political spectrum. Critics have described it as a failure that leaves Iran’s nuclear capabilities, ballistic missiles, and proxy networks largely intact. The deal’s formal signing on Friday in Switzerland will mark a milestone in the conflict, but the sixty days that follow may prove harder to navigate than the war itself.