Industry analysts, theater operators and rival studios are far less convinced the plan can work.
Paramount CEO David Ellison has made a bold pledge to the movie theater industry: if his company’s proposed merger with Warner Bros. Discovery clears regulatory approval, the combined studio will release 30 films theatrically every year. The crowd at CinemaCon earlier this month responded with applause. Behind closed doors, the reaction has been far more cautious.
Theater operators, industry analysts and rival studios have all raised serious doubts about whether Ellison can follow through and history offers little comfort to those hoping he might.
A promise without a clear roadmap
Ellison’s plan, as he has outlined it publicly, would have each studio Paramount and Warner Bros. contributing 15 films per year to reach the combined total of 30. Warner Bros. Discovery shareholders approved the merger last week, but regulatory sign off is still pending, and Ellison has offered few specifics about how the slate would actually come together.
It remains unclear whether all 30 releases would qualify as wide releases typically defined as films playing in at least 1,500 to 2,000 theaters or whether the count would include films the combined company distributes but does not produce. The breakdown between major tentpole blockbusters and smaller productions has also not been addressed. Paramount did not respond to requests for comment on the details.
No studio has done it in 25 years
The sheer scale of what Ellison is proposing has no modern precedent. In the past 25 years, not a single studio has released 30 films in a single year. The closest anyone has come was the combined output of 20th Century Fox and Searchlight in 2006, when the two labels managed 25 wide releases together, according to data from Comscore.
Historical merger data makes the challenge look even steeper. Before Disney acquired the studio assets of 21st Century Fox in 2019, the pre-merger Fox labels were averaging 16 films per year going back to 2000. Disney itself was averaging 12. After the merger closed, Disney averaged around 13 films annually fewer than either company was putting out independently.
Industry analysts say that pattern is not a coincidence. Consolidation tends to eliminate redundancies, reduce headcount and cut production budgets all of which typically result in fewer films reaching theaters, not more.
Industry skepticism runs deep
Analysts who cover the studio business say the 30 film target stretches well beyond what even the most well resourced studios attempt. The typical output for major distributors runs between 10 and 15 wide releases per year, according to Comscore’s head of market trends Paul Dergarabedian. Studios with far deeper pockets than Paramount’s current configuration including Disney, Universal and Warner Bros. itself have the financial capacity to produce at that volume but have chosen not to, in part because the economics don’t support it and in part because strong original material is simply hard to come by in that quantity.
Beyond the creative constraints, there is also a logistical puzzle in fitting 30 films onto a 52 week calendar while competing for the limited number of premium large format screens available at any given time. Those screens are among the most valuable real estate in exhibition, and studios already compete aggressively for the best release windows.
More than 4,000 prominent industry figures including Robert De Niro, David Fincher, Pedro Pascal and Florence Pugh have signed an open letter opposing the merger, citing concerns about job losses and reduced production. The tension was palpable at CinemaCon, where private conversations between studios and theater chains reflected an industry on edge.
Theaters are running out of options
For cinema operators, the stakes could not be higher. Domestic box office revenue has not topped $10 billion since before the pandemic, a significant drop from the years when annual ticket sales in the U.S. and Canada routinely exceeded $11 billion. The shortfall traces back to a chain of disruptions Covid related production shutdowns, back to back strikes by writers and actors, and a steady shift toward streaming that collectively drained the pipeline of theatrical titles.
Theater executives speaking anonymously have been blunt about what another wave of consolidation could mean for their business. Several compared the likely outcome of a Paramount Warner merger to the Disney Fox deal, which they say serves as a cautionary tale: two studios merged, output declined, and cinemas were left scrambling to fill screens.
Amazon MGM has helped ease some of that pressure in recent years, committing to at least 15 theatrical releases annually starting in 2027 and currently on pace for 13 in 2026. Its recent release Project Hail Mary set box office records for the studio. But Amazon’s additions to the slate were already filling the gap left by Disney Fox. A second round of studio consolidation could widen that gap faster than any single new entrant can close it.
AMC CEO Adam Aron has publicly backed the merger and expressed confidence that Ellison will deliver on his commitments. But he remains a distinct voice of optimism in an industry that, for the most part, is bracing for fewer films, not more.