Gold and silver have staged an impressive run over the past year, but some of Wall Street’s sharpest voices are now pumping the brakes. Analysts at Saxo Bank are warning that the precious metals market has entered a more complicated phase, where a clean, momentum-driven breakout is no longer the base case.
The caution comes as gold and silver are being pulled in competing directions torn between safe haven demand, geopolitical developments tied to the Iran conflict, and a shifting dollar that continues to complicate the picture for both metals.
The numbers behind the rally are undeniably strong. Over the past year, gold is up 41.22%, while silver has surged 127.82% over the same period. But analysts say those headline figures can be misleading about what lies ahead.
What Saxo Bank and Morgan Stanley are saying
Saxo Bank analysts are pointing to a scenario where gold and silver remain rangebound until there is greater clarity around a potential peace path in the Middle East. The de-escalation tied to a ceasefire extension has reduced immediate fears of a major oil price spike which had previously stoked inflation fears and added a layer of safe haven urgency to gold buying. Now, with some of that fear fading, the trade has lost a meaningful tailwind.
At the same time, a weaker dollar resulting from the same geopolitical de-escalation could provide a partial offset, since gold and silver are priced in dollars. The result is a market effectively stuck in neutral, with neither bulls nor bears in firm control.
Morgan Stanley’s position reinforces that view. The bank recently lowered its second half 2026 gold price target to $5,200 per ounce, down from an earlier forecast of $5,700, citing sluggish official demand, outflows from gold backed exchange traded funds, and diminishing expectations for near term rate cuts.
Where Wall Street stands on gold’s 2026 price targets
Despite the caution from Saxo and Morgan Stanley, other major institutions remain considerably more bullish. Here is where seven key Wall Street players currently stand:
Wells Fargo Investment Institute, $6,100 to $6,300 by year end 2026
J.P. Morgan, $6,300 by the fourth quarter of 2026
BNP Paribas, $5,620 average for 2026, with a peak above $6,250 possible
Morgan Stanley, $5,200 per ounce for the second half of 2026
Commerzbank, $5,000 by year end 2026
Citi Research, $5,000 near term price target
Macquarie Group, $4,323 average for 2026
The wide spread between those forecasts from $4,323 all the way to $6,300 reflects just how much genuine uncertainty surrounds the trade right now.
Gold’s technical chart is sending a cautious signal
Beyond the macro debate, gold‘s price chart is also telling a less comfortable story. The metal has oscillated between the mid $4,700s and the high $4,800s in recent weeks before pulling back to the low $4,700s a sign that buyers are present but not dominant.
Analysts are closely watching the $4,640 per ounce level as a critical line of support. As long as gold holds above that mark, the market can stabilize and move sideways while traders wait for the next major catalyst. A break below $4,640, however, could trigger a sharper pullback, with the next meaningful support levels sitting in the mid to low $4,000s.
On the upside, gold would need to reclaim the high $4,800s convincingly to suggest the broader trend is back on track. Until that happens, analysts expect rallies to continue meeting sellers before they gain full traction.
What drove gold’s early 2026 surge and what changed
At the start of the year, gold benefited from a favorable combination of falling yields, rate cut confidence, and elevated safe haven demand. That combination made the trade relatively straightforward for investors.
What has changed in recent months is the addition of headwinds, oil driven inflationary pressure, a firmer dollar, rising yields, and persistent ETF selling have collectively taken much of the momentum out of the move. Year to date, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) is up 9.32%, comfortably ahead of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust‘s 4.98% gain but the gap has narrowed as the macro environment has grown more complex.
The broader message from analysts is clear, gold remains a relevant asset in 2026, but the low effort part of its rally appears to be over.